‘Maha-Gut-Bandhan’: Desperate times, desperate measures.

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As described prophetically road to New Delhi passes through Lucknow, and 2019 is not going to be any different.  Given to certainty of this wisdom Samajwadi party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leadership, I repeat ‘leadership’ has buried all their differences at least superficially to take on mighty Modi. Though every poll pundit sitting in New Delhi is overjoyed and drawing all kind of gratification with this, there are multiple inherent contradictions to this arithmetic and likely to see repeat of “UP ke ladke of 2017”.

Fighting for survival: All opinion polls predicted if political outfits fight 2019 separately akin to 2014, BJP will get 74 seats, that’s one seat more than what combined BJP and Apna Dal got in 2014. This fact itself reveals that SP and BSP are scurrying for cover, and this alliance is out of survival instinct rather than any well calculated strategy. They say week is long time in politics but alliance formed well over 100 days to polling have to withstand the proverbial ‘test of time’ for three long months, with behen ji known to make swift ‘U’ turns. This goal keeping act of protecting their so called territory itself is a defensive ploy and will pump up adrenaline rush in strikers on the other side and they will enjoy it.

SP without SPY: For a decade and half beginning from late nineties when SP reached its pinnacle, while  Akhilesh yadav graduated from Mysore to his post-graduation in Australia, shivpal singh yadav(SPY) was ‘Man Friday’ for ‘netaji’ Mulayam. From filling party coffers to negotiating crucial deals to ‘vice like grip’ over co-operative sector to massive connect with foot soldiers of the party were ‘baay haath ka khel’ for SPY. With his vast experience SPY commands strong hold in yadav belt of Etawah-etah-mainpuri-kannajuj. This depleted SP without SPY is similar to Mamata Banarjee without Mukul Roy. SP will fail to hold on to its traditional yadav votes by a distance without SPY and transferring them to BSP will be further jeopardized.

Drained out BSP: BSP lost power in UP in 2012 and failed to send a single representative loksabha in 2014 and performed pathetically in 2017 assembly elections. Post 2012 many of its key leaders have left BSP protesting dictorial attitude of behenji, one example in swami Prasad maurya, not only they just left party but also weaned away crucial voter segments. Post demonetization when UP elections were looming large close confidant of BSP supremo was privately asked for their strategy, he confided “jab behen ji ki pass paise nahi hota hein, koi strategy nahi hota hein”. With aggressive pitch from PM Modi by his work towards as in his own words ‘Dalitoan, pichadoan, gariboan aur peeditoan’ BJP is remarkably successful in weaning away non-jatav dalits from BSP fold. And also in era of where mobile has become mind, BSP stays away from digital media and majority of electorate who are also influential on rest of the family in the age group of 20-45 years will not be convinced by shrill pitch of casteist calls and on other other hand BJP constantly woos this group with its performance graphs. Currently BSP is low on Mayawati’s appeal, second rung leaders, funds, organization and also on marketing, combining together this alliance unlikely to enthuse its core voters as alliance with yadav’s itself is demotivating factor in rural areas.

‘Real tussle: 2022’: Though both Akhilesh and Mayawati will try best their luck in 2019 real focus is on 2022 assembly elections. All they are eyeing is en-block muslim votes, so its very important for them to outsmart each other as a formidable alternative to BJP. With en-block muslim votes plus their protected caste votes and large chunk of swing voters they want lay hand on prashasanik bhavan in Lucknow. Being most politically aware state this fact is crystal clear to party workers even in remote corners of the state that too particularly among SP cadre.

‘Kaam bolta hein’: ‘Kaam bolta hein’ was election slogan of ‘UP ke ladke’ in 2017 which PM Modi turned it upside down with ‘karname bolta hein’. But pace with which UP CM Yogiji has taken welfare schemes to people of the state is worth emulating. All those welfare schemes with strictly implemented rule of law  in place, people of UP are silently convinced of ‘kaam’ of five years of modi government at center and two years yogi government in the state. Record number of houses built in PMJAY, gas cylinders distributed in Ujwala yojana, lighting of households by saubhagya yojana, PM Krishi sinchai yojana, farm ponds for marginal farmers, completed large irrigation projects, UP becoming mobile manufacturing hub, highway connectivity, UDAN connecting tier 2 cities, new airports under construction in Jewar and kushinagar are few examples of PM Modi’s commitment. Apart from giving shoulder to shoulder in implementing all welfare schemes of union government, CM Yogi has pressed all right buttons by successfully implementing farm loan waiver, clearing large dues of sugar cane farmers, record procurement of wheat and oil seeds from the farmers, putting tight leash on criminals, no riot in last two years except for few stray incidents, shaking up one of the most corrupt and highly influential bureaucracy, implementing 7^th pay commission recommendations and also catering to core constituency by supporting kanwar yatra, Ram statue, regular evening aarti in sarayu ghat, deepawali celebrations in ayodhya, gau samrakshan, ban on illegal slaughter houses  to count few. With these mammoth efforts both union and state government is not facing any anti-incumbency, which itself is remarkable.

‘Modi magic’: Unlike many sub-regional identities in different parts of the country, an common UPite is always is a proud Indian, for them none suites better than PM Modi for their mental makeup and honorable PM knows it best. When it comes to matters of national interest UP voter effortlessly climbs above clutches of caste and votes his preference, surgical strikes, making better facilities for jawans, triumphs in sports arena, PM Modi being adulated by foreign heads of the state, tough decisions like demonetization and GST in the larger interest of the country, Michel mama extradition, big companies coughing up lakhs of crores of public money under insolvency and bankruptcy  code are some of things which offer special bounty to PM Modi among UP electorate.

Varanasi being gateway to east UP and is also unofficial capital of eastern UP which hosts 32 lok sabha seats and holiest city for hindus has gone complete makeover in last five years and lakhs of devotees visiting daily are witness to it. On daily basis Modi through his initiatives in Varanasi is giving lakhs of people across the country and particularly eastern UP, glimpse of what is he capable of, Namami Gange to freight carriers along ganga, multimodal transport hubs to uplifting weavers to doing away with hanging electrical lines to widened roads all in just five years for a severely crumpled oldest living city on the globe.

Also there is section of voters who are not BJP supporters but big time Modi fans, in  2017 also they  voted against BJP either for akhilesh bhayya or behenji  but made it pity clear that their vote is only for Modi at the center.

Counter polarization: Bypolls of Gorakhpur and Phulpur were lost by BJP and lost for their complacency with polling percentage reduced by 1/3^rd of what it was in 2014. Followed by in khairana too BJP lost its representation against united opposition which was hailed as end of BJP in UP by trumpet blowers in lutyens delhi, but kairana where BJP fought with vengeance against united opposition despite drop in voter turnout by 12% actually points towards what going to unfold in 2019. In this bypoll BJP candidate Mriganka singh polled 46%, so when all opposition parties are united there is always counter polarization in favour of BJP and if they are hovering around 50% in bypoll in a place like kairana, repeat of 2014 is not a distant dream. And BJP president Amit shah’s claim of ‘UP mein hum pachas pratishat ki ladai ladne ke liye tayyar hein’ seems very much reasonable.

Phenomena beyond caste: Contrary to South Indian states UP is still a state of few rich and many poor, feudal structures still intact voting will be against certain caste combinations. At hinterland yadavs and dalits are at loggerheads day in and out. Yadavs known by their nature are aggressive and non-compromising, vote transfer from yadav community to BSP candidate will not be linear.  Even though considerable section of yadavs vote on caste lines they are very proud hinds too, for them if they don’t get to vote a yadav always next best option is BJP.

On the flip side both Modi and Yogi have ascended beyond caste barriers. Modi by his sheer charisma and voluminous work, has won the heart of downtrodden by various welfare schemes listed above and is darling upper caste for his patriotism, decisiveness, clean governance and long term vision for the country.

Yogi by birth is thakur but his saintly responsibilities and connect to gorakhsha peeth with masses particularly in eastern UP made his pan-hindu appeal formidable. So on one side MGB has caste arithmetics likely to play against each other on the other side two mass leaders who are dear to united spectrum of hindu votes.

‘Amit shah’ factor: Karma bites, congress with its admirable wisdom spotted their nemesis much earlier than anybody else, knowing what could be coming decade later it tried best to finish off modi-shah duo politically and overstepped in doing so,  latest supreme court order on sohrabuddin encounter vindicated the same. So when Amit bhai had to stay away from Gujarat due to shear vendetta by then UPA government he used this opportunity best to understand UP and which led to two historic wins in 2014 and 2017. Amit shah understands UP at block level and his two of his lieutenants OP Mathur and Sunil bansal has spent most of their time since 2014 in UP and to counter-strategize against trio of shah-mathur-bansal will be toughest task MGB has to go through if it all they hold together till polling day.

Kumbh Holy confluence: 44 day long ongoing Kumbh will extend till first week of march, will coincide with official announcement of general elections in its fag end. Kumbh being biggest religious gathering on the planet, tempo of subtle hindu sentiments expected to run feverish pitch particulary in UP, which will keep its crescendo for few months and likely to pick up with voting. Yogi government took special interest in making proper arrangements for visitors and haven’t left any stone unturned to extract all possible political mileage out of it. Already visitors have made statements that first time they are seeing ‘gangamayya’ being so clean and adulating its manasaputra ‘modi’ for unbelievable turnaround.

To conclude, met a trader on the outskirts of Lucknow, in Raebareily road two days post demonetization   shock, when asked for his response he said ‘desh ki liye bahut achcha hua lekin hum logon ka gardhan kat gaya, phir bhi jab tak haath nahi katenge vote tho modi ko hi denge’. Adding vote share of SP and BSP from 2014 is just an ‘excel’ job which failed miserably in ‘UP ke ladke’ episode in 2017, with one more from gandhi clan likely to be in electoral politics ‘UP is spiced UP’ and SPY keen on his political future, BJP is comfortably crossing half century mark which is their actual target for 2019 in UP.

Author : Alemari Ambona , Medical practitioner, keen interests in agriculture, politics, grass root innovations, civil society issue. Author can be reached out on twitter handle @Alemari_Ambona