Uttar Pradesh 2019 – BJP’s Decline or An Overhyped Mahagathbandhan?

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 The road to Delhi originates from Uttar Pradesh. This is what is said about a general election in our country and 2019 is no exception. But this time around, the battle in Uttar Pradesh just got even more fascinating and exciting with SP and BSP joining hands to stop BJP’s chariot.

Going into why the two parties have come together is a waste of time as everyone knows the motivation behind the alliance. What this article is about is making an analysis of what may happen in the 2019 elections in the multi-faceted state.

First, a comparison of the vote-share of the BJP and the alliance on the basis of the 2014 polls:

BJP

[table id=4 /]

Other than these seats, Kairana, Phulpur and Gorakhpur were three seats that BJP lost in the by-polls.

Alliance

[table id=5 /]

Other than the above mentioned 72 seats, the rest are – Amethi and Rai Bareli (Congress seats); Badaun, Mainpuri, Firozabad, Kannauj, and Azamgarh (won by SP won in 2014); and Bahraich (BJP won in 2014 but the winning candidate quit the party).

Worst Case Scenario

The assumptions for this analysis are:

• Vote-share that SP and BSP individually achieved in the 2014 polls will completely add up without any loss to either party.
• BJP is not going to lose vote share.
• Apna Dal will continue to be a part of the NDA.

The worst-case scenario for the BJP states that the BJP may comfortably go on to win those seats on which it has a gain of over 5%; there are 30 such seats.

Looking at the political scenario – no visible anti-incumbency against the ruling government – it is near impossible for the alliance to capture seats where BJP has a 5%+ vote advantage.

This scenario assumes that BJP will again lose the 3 seats it lost in the by-polls and also the 3 seats on which it has a less than 5% vote advantage.

Realistic Possibility

Assumptions for this analysis:

• Vote-share that SP and BSP individually achieved in the 2014 polls won’t add up.
• BJP is not going to lose vote share.
• Apna Dal will continue to be a part of the NDA.

BJP will win the 30 seats where it has a lead of 5%+ over SP-BSP. The three seats – Kairana, Gorakhpur, Phulpur – that the BJP lost in the by-polls will be regained because:

1. There was low voter turnout in the by-polls which is a negative for the BJP. This won’t be the case in 2019.
2. Voter enthusiasm in by-polls is low.
3. People in 2019 will vote to elect the prime minister and that is the greatest factor in favour of the BJP.

There are 3 seats where BJP’s vote share is more than a combined SP-BSP vote share by less than 5%. Considering the fact that the Narendra Modi government has implemented its welfare schemes incredibly well; Yogi Adityanath is being seen positively in the state particularly because of the drastically reducing crime levels; and the fact that 100% vote addition is impossible for SP and BSP, BJP might well go on to win these 3 seats as well.

This takes the BJP to 36 seats.

Why it is impossible for the SP and BSP to witness a complete vote addition:

• Despite how happy Mayawati and Akhilesh seemed in the press conference, it was all optics. In reality, both leaders want to win more seats than each other to establish individual supremacy in the state which will result in stiff competition but competition that is not visible to people.
• The cadre of both parties can’t simply gel together in a few months’ time. It would be incredibly hard and unnatural for an SP worker who’s dedicated his life to his party (or for a BSP worker for that matter) to suddenly campaign whole-heartedly for a BSP candidate given that SP and BSP have had a very sour and distasteful history.
• There are at least 12 seats where the alliance has a chance of winning but both the parties have strong leaders on those seats. On these seats, both parties got good votes in 2014 and were neck-to-neck. How do Mayawati and Akhilesh decide which party’s candidate will fight on these seats given that they are potentially winnable seats? This will definitely create ruckus, and the leader who has to forego his seat won’t take it lying down given that he just gave up a seat that could’ve made him an MP. His followers too will most likely not campaign dedicatedly for the other party’s candidate.
• Congress fighting all seats is beneficial to the BJP as it can potentially take away some minority votes from the alliance.
• Shivpal Yadav is another factor that will most likely hurt the alliance considering he could cut Yadav votes.

Hence, the press conference was the high point for the alliance. From now on, it’ll only get tougher for them because of a plethora of reasons.

Taking into consideration the above points, we must look at the 11 seats where the alliance had a less than 5% advantage over the BJP in 2014. If the BJP is able to improve on its 2014 vote share or even retain its vote percentage – which is highly possible – and the alliance loses votes, then these 11 seats could also be grabbed by the BJP taking its tally to 47.

Bahraich was won by the BJP in 2014, and if the vacuum created by Savitri Phule’s quitting the party can be filled then the BJP may go on to win this seat because the combined SP-BSP vote share in 2014 was almost equal to BJP’s.

Amethi is a very interesting seat that is expected to go BJP’s way this time because the party has done a lot of work and Smriti Irani has risen in stature in Amethi. A clear signal of the same is news that Rahul Gandhi might contest from other seats as well.

Adding these two seats takes BJP’s total to 49.

In conclusion, the BJP can notch close to 50 seats if it does its campaigning and booth planning well. A fall from 73 to 50 might seem a big one but if the BJP wins anywhere between 45-50 seats then it is an incredible performance considering the alliance it is up against.

Also, the alliance has played its card. It has no further surprises for the BJP. On the contrary, BJP has a lot of time and potential moves both at the state and central level to attract more voters into its fold.