Monsoon withdrawal likely around October 10

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Monsoon withdrawal is likely to commence from northwest India around October 10, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD’s) Sunday bulletin. Dry weather will set in over most parts of northwest India from Monday.

However, a western disturbance is presently affecting the Western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India. Rain and thunderstorm activity is likely over western Himalayan region on Monday, the bulletin says.

Widespread and heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning is also likely over peninsular India during next three-four days. “Due to likely formation of anti-cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan at 1.5 km above mean sea level around October 6, the withdrawal of southwest monsoon is likely to commence from northwest India around October 10,” said IMD’s two-week forecast. It added that in the October 10 to 16 week, normal to above normal rainfall activity is likely over Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and most parts of northeastern states. “There is no update on the northeast monsoon yet. But southwest monsoon winds are likely to bring good rainfall to peninsular India in the next few days,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

The 2019 southwest monsoon officially came to an end on September 30 with “above normal” rain fall at 110% of long period average (LPA). The monsoon rains received after that will be counted as “post-monsoon” rain. In spite of late monsoon onset on June 8 and June ending with a deficiency of 33%, July, August and September received 105%, 115% and 152% of their LPA respectively.

IMD had predicted a near normal monsoon at 96% of LPA in May. The prolonged monsoon season was not forecast by IMD.