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US may give in on Indo-Russian deal

The US is on the horns of a dilemma on India’s $5 billion deal with Russia for purchase of S-400 ‘Triumf’ surface-to-air missile systems. It is torn between silent glee that New Delhi is covering its flanks against any Chinese misadventures and the implicit irritation that Russia is stealing a march over it by striking the deal in defiance of threatened sanctions against the Russians for any trade deals.

The Modi government is hoping against hope that the punitive sanctions that the US has envisaged for any trade deal with Russia would be waived keeping in mind the Indian propensity to contain the formidable Chinese in their own way. But the Americans, more particularly President Donald Trump, are keen to extract some concessions from New Delhi in return for the US looking the other way on the S-400 Indo-Russian deal. They see in this an opportunity to enhance their effectiveness.

In its first reaction to the deal from the embassy in New Delhi, the US said that the sanctions on Russia were intended to impose costs for its “malign behaviour” and not “impose damage to the military capabilities of our allies or partners”.  Saying that it cannot prejudge any sanctions decisions, the US said waivers, if any, will be considered on a transaction-by-transaction basis. It would indeed be naive for the US to overlook the fact that China has already bought the S-400s from Russia and that Beijing is turning unstoppable in its quest for super power status.

 

The S-400 deal forms part of the strategic partnership that India has forged with the Russians. Since the US, too, is looking upon India as a strategic partner in its bid to contain China, it is piqued at the Indo-Russian strategic partnership. Simply put, it is jealous of the Indo-Russian bid to rekindle the ties of yesteryears. Yet, does it have a worthy option to jeopardise its relations with India and risk India forming an axis with both Russia and China which could weaken its own reach?

A nation of India’s size and stature can ill afford to be dictated to on who it should buy its weapon systems from. With general elections in India just a few months away, no government can afford to look so weak as to take dictation from a foreign power. Yet, the Modi government wanted to avoid rubbing the US on the wrong side too hard. Consequently, the dialogue that the US Secretary of State and Defence Secretary had with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last month was useful in putting India’s point across effectively.

The S-400 Triumf is an anti-aircraft system which can shoot down ballistic missiles at a range of 60 kms. It has several launchers, command and logistics vehicles and can track as many as 300 airborne targets and can destroy 36 of them in one go. While India will receive the first S-400 squadron within 24 months of signing the deal, the rest will be delivered in the next four to five years. It needs to be appreciated that Indo-Russian relations could have been in serious trouble if India, for some reason, had failed to strike this deal. The Russians could well have courted the Pakistanis to spite India and strengthened the China-Pakistan-Russia axis, giving India the jitters.

India has had a taste of what a new-found Pakistani closeness to Russia could mean. In the past, India has benefited from Russian indulgence especially in the way the Russians and the earlier Soviets have stood by India in the United Nations on Kashmir. India can hardly forget the debt it owes to the Soviets/Russians on this aspect. It would have amounted to a test of nerves for the Modi government especially if the US had flexed its muscles over the deal but India could not bow down meekly to the US and then pretend to be a burgeoning Asian power. That the deal reached fruition is an index that Modi was ready to stick his neck out.

Modi indeed knew only too well that if he were to succumb on Iranian oil due to fears of US sanctions and on the deal with Russia on S-400 again on US arm-twisting, his own reputation of being able to stand up to Trump and to the US in general would have been in jeopardy. The US reaction to the S-400 deal is yet to fully unfold. All eyes are on Washington to see how things ultimately shape up. The Indo-Russian deal is a signal that the Modi administration is “trying to take steps to counter China,” said Richard Rossow, a senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, who specializes on U.S.-India relations. He believes that India wants high-end defence equipment for power projection in the Indian Ocean, where Beijing has been growing increasingly assertive.

From Tanzania to Sri Lanka, the two Asian heavyweights have been competing to establish a stronger military and economic presence in countries along the massive waterway. Since China launched its first overseas military base in Djibouti last year, Modi’s government has secured access to naval facilities in Indonesia, Iran, Oman and the Seychelles.

“The S-400 range would enable India to track aircraft beyond its borders, making it a valuable asset as the People’s Liberation Army Air Force extends its training and deployments closer to Indian territory,” said Zoe Stanley Lockman, an associate research fellow specialising in defence at Singapore-based Nanyang Technological University. All in all, the game of strategic advantage vis-a-vis the Chinese is in full flow and the US believes that if there is a country it can lean on it is India.

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