Global brokerage company Goldman Sachs believes that India is growing at 9.1 per cent in the calendar year 2022 in comparison to 8 per cent in the current year. Goldman Sachs said it is optimistic about India, given its significant holding capacity after the pandemic hit the economy.
India is witnessing a strong economic rebound with almost all high-frequency indicators in green and looking upward. The growth numbers for the second quarter will be released later this month and are expected to confirm India’s strong economic comeback.
India’s economy registered a comeback with a growth of 20.1 per cent in the first quarter. The double-digit growth was on account of a lower base as the economy contracted 7 per cent in the previous fiscal.
SBI upgraded India’s GDP growth projection to 9.3-9.6%
A recent SBI research report has also upgraded India’s GDP growth projections for this year to a range of 9.3 per cent to 9.6 per cent from the earlier forecast of 8.5 per cent to 9 per cent, attributed the optimism to improved vaccination and lower incidence of COVID-19 cases in the country.
SBI economists have forecasted GDP growth of 8.1 per cent with an upward bias for the July-September quarter, citing 41 high-frequency indicators factored into its ‘Nowcasting’ model. Official growth estimates for the second quarter are expected at the end of the month.
“Full-year GDP growth has now been revised upwards to 9.3 per cent-9.6 per cent from our earlier estimate of 8.5-9.0 per cent. With this the real GDP will be around Rs 2.4 lakh crore higher than the 2019-20 real GDP of Rs 145.69 lakh crore,” said SBI Group Chief Economic Adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh, emphasizing that this will take the economy 1.5 per cent to 1.7 per cent above pre-pandemic levels by March 2022.
“The reason for the amendment is that India remained untouched by the global situation in July-September, which is affected by supply disruptions, stubborn inflation and a surge of infections. India registered a growth of only 11 per cent in cases during the quarter, which is the second-lowest among the top 15 worst-affected countries,” he said in the research report.