India is likely to experience heat waves between March and May this year, which may negatively impact wheat production in several parts of the country, especially the key wheat-producing central and northern states. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), during the upcoming hot weather season, above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of northeast India, east and central India and some parts of northwest India. Normal to below normal maximum temperatures are most likely over remaining parts of the country.
During this season, above normal minimum temperatures are very likely over most parts of the country except south peninsular India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely. Monthly maximum temperatures for March 2023, are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country except peninsular India, where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely.
Above normal monthly minimum temperatures are most likely during March, 2023 over most parts of India, except south peninsular India, where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely. Enhanced probability of occurrence of Heat waves during March to May season is likely over many regions of Central and adjoining Northwest India.
A low probability for occurrence of heatwaves over Central India is likely during March 2023. The rainfall in March 2023 averaged over the country, is most likely to be normal. Below normal rainfall is most likely over most areas of northwest India, west central India and some parts of east & northeast India. Normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of peninsular India, east central India and some isolated pockets of northeast India.
A heat wave is a period of abnormally high temperatures, more than the normal maximum temperature that occurs during the hot weather season. The probability forecast for the minimum temperatures indicates that during the upcoming hot weather season, normal to above normal minimum temperatures are very likely over most parts of the country except south peninsular India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
Above normal monthly minimum temperatures are most likely over most parts of India except south peninsular India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
Since 2016, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), coming under Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), has been issuing seasonal outlooks for temperatures over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons. IMD also continuously works to improve the skill of forecasting models.
The current strategy is based on the newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system. The MME approach uses the Coupled Global Climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centers including IMD/MoES Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) model. IMD has now prepared seasonal and monthly temperature forecast over the country for the upcoming hot weather season (March to May 2023) and for March 2023.
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