New Delhi: The well-marked low-pressure area over the south-east and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area has concentrated into a depression on Monday morning.
It is located about 370 kilometres (km) southwest of Panjim; 690 km south-southwest of Mumbai and 920 km south-south-west of Surat. The depression likely to intensify into a deep depression over the next 12 hours and a severe cyclonic storm, called Nisarga, by Wednesday.
The cyclone track — issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) authorities — show that Nisarga will cross very close to the Mumbai coast while entering the land. Maharashtra and Gujarat are on pre-cyclone alert as very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the states on Wednesday and Thursday.
Initially, Nisarga is likely to move towards northwards till Tuesday morning and then recurve north-northeast wards and cross north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts between Harihareshwar (Raigad, Maharashtra) and the union territory of Daman on Wednesday evening. When it crosses the coast as a severe cyclonic storm it will have a wind speed of 105 to 115 km per hour (kmph) gusting up to 125 kmph. Very heavy to extremely heavy rain is expected in Konkan, Goa, parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat till Thursday, according to IMD.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the south-east Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area and along and off Kerala coast during next 48 hours; the east-central Arabian Sea and along and off Karnataka-Goa coasts till Wednesday; the east-central Arabian Sea along and off Maharashtra coast and the north-east Arabian Sea along and off Gujarat coast on Wednesday and Thursday because the sea is expected to be very rough.
Conditions are favourable for intensification of the cyclone because the sea surface temperature is about 30 to 32 degrees Celsius, as compared to a normal of 28 degrees Celsius during this season. “We’re expecting rapid intensification of the cyclonic system once formed, because sea surface temperature is high, wind shear (variation in wind velocity) is low and ocean heat potential is also high,” said Sunita Devi, who is in-charge of cyclones at IMD, on Sunday.