Business activity continue to rise in India, higher than pre-pandemic levels: Nomura

Nomura, a Japanese brokerage firm, said on August 30, 2021, that business resumption activity continued its upward journey and rose significantly above pre-pandemic levels for the week ended August 29, 2021.

Business activity breaks pre-pandemic level, NIBRI rises to 102.7

According to Nomura, the Nomura India Business Ratings Index (NIBRI) rose to 102.7 for the week ended August 29, as against 101.3 in the previous week.

Nomura said the index rose 5.6 percentage points (pp) in August 2021, after 17.1 pp in July and 15 pp in June.

From April 2020, NIBRI remained on an uptrend that has continued into 2021, rising from 86.5 in October-December 2020 to 94.7 in January-March 2021. The latest data suggest that economic activity will continue to pick up in the coming quarters.

Vaccination will boost business activity

The vaccination speed has increased to 7.1 million doses per day (7-day Moving Average) from 4.7 million a week ago, it said, adding that if this pace maintains, India would be on track to fully vaccinate roughly 50 per cent of the population by the end-2021.

GDP growth in the September quarter will rebound sequentially, Nomura said, maintaining its above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 10.4 per cent in the financial year 2022.

Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI)

The NIBRI includes the Google Mobility Indices, driving mobility from Apple, power demand and labour force participation rates. NIBRI series considers February 23, 2020, as the base for all the series and subsequent data entries have been indexed to it.

For the week ended August 29, Google retail and recreation and Apple driving indices rose by 0.6 percentage points (p)p and 10 pp, respectively. Power demand rose by 0.1 per cent as compared to the previous week, while the labour participation rate inched up to 40.8 per cent from 40 per cent.

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