Light overnight rain, moderate wind speed over Mumbai ahead of Cyclone Nisarga

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Mumbai and its suburbs recorded light showers between Tuesday night and today morning, ahead of Cyclone Nisarga that is expected to make landfall this afternoon near Raigad district’s Alibag, around 10 nautical miles (16 km) south of Maharashtra’s capital city.

While the suburbs recorded 10mm rain between 8.30 pm Tuesday and 5.30 am Wednesday, south Mumbai recorded 14.4mm during the same period.

The latest cyclone bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) at 5 am today issued similar warnings as Tuesday for the landfall — expected over Alibag by noon and with impact expected over the coastal districts of Raigad, Mumbai, Thane and Palghar.

Cyclone Nisarga was expected to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by 5.30am, which was located 200 km off Alibag, and 250 km off Mumbai. However, the release identified that an expected reduction in intensity after landfall was expected with the severe cyclonic status dropping back to a cyclonic storm by 5.30 pm this evening.

A post-landfall outlook indicated that the cyclone was expected to move north northeastward towards central Maharashtra, and its impact affecting Pune, Ahmednagar, Nashik, Beed and Aurangabad districts. A state government advisory on Tuesday said there could be minor damage to power and communication lines, thatched houses, roads, and trees in these districts.

Meanwhile, a UK-based independent meteorologist said overnight developments in weather models showed a reduction in intensity forecasts of Cyclone Nisarga. “The intensity of the system is reducing with each model run. Its peak wind speed as per the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC; a joint United States Navy and Air Force command situated at Guam in the Pacific Ocean) is going to be around 85 km/hr. While it continues to be a cyclonic storm, time is running out for it to gather strength before it makes landfall and (we will) witness a gradual loss in intensity,” said Akshay Deoras, independent meteorologist and Ph.D. researcher at the University of Reading. “Prospects of rapid intensification are reducing which could have made things worse for Mumbai, Alibag and other regions. The impact is expected to be certainly less than previous official estimates.”