Offense is the essence of air power.
— General H. H. ‘Hap’ Arnold, USAAF.
The Indian Air force has the Himalayan Eagle as its crest, a magnificent bird of prey that lords over the Himalayan biosphere. That said political bungling, institutionalized inefficiency and absolute stupidity has led to a situation where failing absolutely urgent action the Indian Air Force could fall to a strength of only 26 operational squadrons instead of the authorized 42 by 2025. This situation becomes even more urgent in the face of an rapidly growing and modernizing Pakistani Air Force which has started adding 24 JF-17s to its fleet every year from 2017-18 and a Chinese PLAAF which is transitioning into a 5th generation air force.
DASSAULT RAFALE
India will retire nearly 200 older aircraft by 2025 and hence will drop its fleet strength by nearly 120 jets or 6 squadrons, even with the addition of 40 new Tejas & 36 Dassault Rafale. The MMRCA 2.0 for another 110 modern 4++ gen aircraft is nowhere in sight and given the current political logjam created over the issue there is little chance of it being signed in 2019 as well. What then can the govt which comes to power in 2019 do? Well for starters the easiest option would be to somehow keep at least 4 of these 6 squadrons hobbling along till 2030 despite obsolescence. We’ve already done that with the MIG-21 for the last 15 odd yrs that said this would be a decision fraught with technical difficulties & political risk. No Sane govt would want the blame for any casualties die to air crashes on its shoulders!
There is also the option of going in for another 40 SU-30MKI and the existing line at HAL should be able to supply these by 2025 as well, this alongside a follow-up order for another 36 Rafale to be delivered by 2025 would ensure a total of 8 new squadrons by 2025, which would easily cover up for the retired squadrons. However given the current nonsensical hullabaloo over the Rafale, whether this will pass political muster remains to be seen. Also this would be a temporary solution at best given that we will also be retiring all our Jaguars, Mirages and Mig29s in the 2030-2035 timeframe that adds up to another 200 jets that will need replacement.
J17, JF-17.6 & JF-20 THE THREE STEALTH PLATFORM FOR EXPORT BY CHINA.
Any Government that looks at the upcoming scenario will also need to bear in mind the fact that India will be a 7.5-10$Tr Economy by 2030-32 with far greater assets to protect, at the same time China will grow into an economy larger than the US with an air force which will have more than 60 squadrons of 4++ and 5th generation Stealthy combat aircraft. There is a high likelihood of China Transferring 5th generation aircraft to Pakistan as well and three designs of such stealthy aircraft for export have already been exhibited by China.
The Political elite in India needs to let go of politics and confront the unions in HAL on the sheer inefficiency in the working of the PSU, it is simply inexcusable that Pakistan Aircraft Factory Ormara has been able to deliver 24 JF-17s this year while HAL hasn’t yet been able to reach the target of 16 LCA/annum, the LCA program and HAL must be put under strict targets with the involvement of the IAF to ensure timely development and production of the mk1a and mk2 versions with bulk orders. We also need to realize that as far as competing with China is concerned the writing is writ large on the wall that “HAL alone cannot match up”, we also need to realize that we need 5th gen aircraft as replacements for the M2000 & the MIG-29 by 2030. The AMCA project must be sped up while simultaneous talks for acquisition of either the SU-57 or the F-35 are initiated with at least one jet finalized for acquisition by 2025 at the latest so deliveries can begin by 2028-29. India needs to get its act together to ensure the IAF retains its air superiority over the subcontinent or the Eagle might fall into even greater problems!
Author : Soumik Pyne has a day job as an engineer & is an independent commentator on Defence & Strategic affairs. He can be reached on his twitter id @Aryanwarlord
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