India to attend US-Taliban peace deal event in Doha today

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As the US and Taliban sign a deal to agree to the withdrawal of thousands of American troops from Afghanistan in return for insurgent guarantees on Saturday, India will attend the event in Qatar which holds the possibility of ending the 18-year conflict.

India has been invited by the Qatar government to the ceremony where the US-Taliban deal will be signed. The country will be represented by P Kumaran, the ambassador in Doha, and it will be the first time in recent decades that an Indian official will be present at an event involving Taliban delegates.

India has been keeping a close eye on developments related to the US-Taliban deal, especially because of the terror group’s close links with Pakistan.

The US-Taliban deal figured in talks earlier this week between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

During the talks, the US president is understood to have said that Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan had sought mediation by the US during all their meetings, but Trump had shown no inclination to do so.

People familiar with the discussions said that Khan’s requests had become a “nuisance at the personal level” but it was necessary for the US to deal with him to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan.

The Indian side has drawn comfort from the US assertion that it didn’t see Pakistan as a “trusted friend”, the people cited above added.

The people said the Indian side conveyed to US interlocutors it understood Pakistan’s cooperation is crucial for the deal with the Taliban but this shouldn’t lead to an easing of the pressure on Islamabad to crack down on terror groups based on its soil.

“During talks on counter-terrorism, we discussed the need for the US to keep up pressure on Pakistan. The US needs to verify and keep a close eye on things so that Pakistan continues to be on the straight and narrow,” said a second person who too spoke on condition of anonymity.

India also highlighted the need for keeping up the pressure on Pakistan at forums such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the second person said.

During the Trump-Modi talks, the Indian side also stresses on the importance of intra-Afghan talks and an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled process in finding a final solution.

“The troop drawdown shouldn’t be too precipitate and the US should keep in mind that we shouldn’t lose the gains of the past 19 years in terms of the Afghan Constitution, rights of women and minorities, and the Afghan National Defence Forces,” the second person said.

The second person added the US has indicated it is retaining a “strong deterrent capability” in Afghanistan so that any violations of the deal can be dealt with “with a heavy stick”.

Anatomy of a deal

US President Donald Trump urged the Afghan people to embrace the chance for a new future.

“If the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan live up to these commitments, we will have a powerful path forward to end the war in Afghanistan and bring our troops home,” he said on the eve of the event.

Trump said he was sending secretary of state Mike Pompeo to witness the signing of the treaty, and that defence secretary Mark Esper would separately issue a joint declaration with the Kabul government.

The agreement is expected to lead to a dialogue between the Kabul government and the Taliban that, if successful, could ultimately see the Afghan war wind down.

But the position of the Afghan government, which has been excluded from direct US-Taliban talks, remains unclear and the country is gripped by a fresh political crisis amid contested election results.

The deal, drafted over a tempestuous year of dialogue marked by the abrupt cancellation of the effort by Trump in September, is expected to lay out a timetable for a US force withdrawal.

“There’s been so much speculation about the contents of the deal… we know the broad outlines but it’s not even clear whether the full terms of the deal will be made public,” Andrew Watkins, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group consultancy.

Posh club

Kabul, which will not be represented at the Doha signing set for around 1245GMT, will send a six-person task force to the Qatari capital to make initial contact with the Taliban political office, established in 2013.

The talks have taken place in a plush members’ club in Doha, where turbaned Taliban fighters-turned-negotiators and suited American officials have rubbed shoulders with club-goers in Hawaiian shirts and swimwear.

As many as 30 nations are expected to be represented at Saturday’s signing in the Qatari capital.

The deal will be signed after a week-long, partial truce that has mostly held across Afghanistan aimed at building confidence between the warring parties and showing the Taliban can control their forces.

While isolated attacks have continued in rural areas, Mike Pompeo said Tuesday that the truce period was “working”. “We’re on the cusp of an enormous, enormous political opportunity,” Pompeo said.

The US, which currently has between 12,000 and 13,000 troops in Afghanistan, could draw that number down to 8,600 within months of the agreement being signed.

Further reductions would depend on the Taliban’s engagement with the government of President Ashraf Ghani, whom they have until now dismissed as a US-backed puppet.

“This is just a precursor to get that process started, it’s not a cause for celebration among the government or its allies,” International Crisis Group’s Watkins said.

Although Ghani has been declared the winner of last year’s elections, his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah, is refusing to recognise the win and has vowed to set up a rival government.

Any insurgent pledge to guarantee Afghanistan is never again used by jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State to plot attacks abroad will be key to the deal’s viability.

The Taliban’s sheltering of al-Qaeda was the main reason for the US invasion following the 9/11 attacks. The conflict has cost the US taxpayer more than $1 trillion in military and rebuilding costs since the US-led invasion of 2001.

According to the United Nations, more than 100,000 Afghan civilians have been killed or injured over the past decade.