Advantage Fadnavis?
The man in waiting – Devendra Fadnavis – may have to remain so for a couple of days more. It does not mean that he would form his next government soon. Fortune favouring him, he may take over the reins once again, to go through the heat (the hate?) of an ambitious partner every now and then; left to misfortune, he may be left out of the ‘arrangements’ worked out ‘to respect people’s wishes and expectations’. In that case, he would not be in ‘waiting mode’ anymore and would enjoy the freedom of a leader with a lot of ammunition to take on the adversaries with only cementing factor among them being ‘the chair’ and nothing else.
Why this stalemate? Who undid a formidable BJP to bring it down to this unpleasant, vulnerable situation? Can you believe it? It was the BJP itself that chose to throw its sea-like opportunities into a muddy pond known for its ‘ability’ to pull down anyone into its murky graveyard.
A party that had registered a massive win barely 6 months ago in a general election, a party that had a leader-cum Chief Minister with a fairly good image, a party that had everything to its advantage had decided to carry the bag of dirty clothes on its back in its run up to forming a successive government that would have been as simple as Virat Kohli scoring a century against South Africa!
Shiv Sena as a party may have a similar ideology; that apart, there exists nothing that is common between the Sena and the BJP. The former is out and out a ‘local’ party that survives purely on its strength to play the ‘local’ card to its benefits. Outside the state of Maharashtra, Shiv Sena is a non-entity and its ‘popularity’ is so high that a Sena candidate in a state like Tamilnadu could hardly ever reach a 3-digit number in a parliamentary election!
Inside the state of Maharashtra too, it is not like the DMK or the AIADMK in Tamilnadu or like TRS /Telugu Desam in Telangana / Andhra. Sena is an outfit that has not been admitted even by the Marathas to be their lone representative. If the Sena were to be a great force on their own, why its leaders did not go alone in the assemble elections? It was because they knew that it would then be the end of the ‘game’ for them – forever.
The men in charge of national party in Delhi miserably failed to bank upon the fairly appreciable work of Fadnavis as the Chief Minister of Maharashtra. They had pathetically underestimated the winning capacity of BJP on its own as they had twin advantages of a strong national leader and a leader in the state in whom the people had the trust to give him another term. Clearly, the BJP lost the advantage.
A ‘go alone’ decision under the leadership of the Chief Minsiter Fadnavis would have brought a lot more votes and a lot more seats and that would have served the interests of the ‘Indians’ at large to have overlooked the undue demands of a scary local outfit. (in my opinion it is neither a regional nor a State party but a local outfit set to progress or perish locally)
The unholy alliance with a highly vocal group had considerably damaged the pan-India image of BJP. It reduced the prospect of the BJP being endorsed by many who were not ready to accept a short sighted, narrow minded group in a vastly changed mindset of the youth today who are same in their attitude all over the country. They are not to be cowed down by petty emotional issues but are rather inclined to support anyone who is capable of ‘going beyond’.
The high command of the BJP did not care to gauge the mood of the general public in favour of its Chief Minister; to the contrary, it preferred to join hands with the forces many in Maharashtra were unhappy about. This decision of the BJP had in fact helped the Congress –NCP alliance to score an unexpected come back which was never even attempted to by them!
The general, vastly neutral public did not only stay away from the BJP combine but came out in support of the Congress – NCP partnership because they found no other way out to check the rise of ‘unfriendly’ elements on their soil. At one stage, even the traditional anti-BJP blocks were ready to come forward to back it since they believed that a BJP government in the State would be more beneficial to them than anything else.
Indian political leaders are often found wanting when they make decision of making electoral alliances. Like MK Stalin did during the Lok Sabha elections this year. In the absence of a powerful, most charismatic leader like Jayalalitha, the DMK must have tried its hand going it alone in the Parliamentary election. An alliance with the Congress was also acceptable and made sense too. But why the hell should there be a place for the Left parties who carried a dead ideology and were in existence only on paper?
The Left parties in all had won just 5 seats from all over India and 4 had come from Tamilnadu! MKStalin would have done a great, unintentional service to Indian politics if he had allowed an imminent, natural burial to the Left. Thanks to Stalin &co and the Tamil news channels, the ‘professors’ of the Left are still out there making the political scene a mockery of sorts.
The BJP did the same mistake in Maharashtra. They had brought alive a group who would otherwise have perished like the CPI or CPI(M) without a trace. Mysteriously, the BJP, known for its calculative designs, went down on its knees to join hands with the Sena and that single decision had almost sealed its fate. The BJP was bound to suffer.
The votes of BJP to a large extent shifted to candidates of Shiv Sena wherever they fought but the ‘undecided’ voters turned their face away from BJP and they very rightly favoured the Congress and NCP. It was all about the option that was laid before the general public and they have never once failed in exercising their franchise cleverly.
An unclear verdict is the very best that could happen for the Shiv Sena. Do not curse me if I say that anything that is not good for the state or its people is good for the Sena! They have started doing what can only be expected from these disgruntled elements. People of Maharashtra wanted the Fadnavis back.
Since the BJP made a tactical blunder, they had no other option but to vote for Sena as well. That is to say, the votes for the BJP – Sena alliance was for the continuance of the government in office, particularly Devendra Fadnavis as the Chief Minister.
As it stands now, it seems everybody other than the BJP is talking about the formation of Fadnavis government again. Congress has never been so shrewd to say ‘no’ to align with their electoral opponents if that could mean keeping the BJP away from coming to power even for a short duration. There is another reason as well for its strange behaviour. It is so long now that the Congress believed that they could come back on their own with a clear agenda and a positive mandate in its favour by the people of the country or a State.
The condition of the NCP is no different. For them the present outcome is a ‘god sent’ opportunity. They were not ready for a situation where they would be a force to reckon with in forming the government. Now it is before them. With nothing to lose and so much to gain thro a tough bargain, the NCP would only be too happy to go with the Sena.
In the given circumstances, a government of Sena –NCP with an outside support of the Congress does not seem to be an altogether impossible proposition. This may alienate or even anger the public. But who cares? Power justifies every wrong thing. And…, the politics of Maharashtra is all about the Power.
Yet, it is still – advantage Fadnavis!
(to continue.
Baskaran Krishnamurthy – Educationist, Columnist, proponent of Gandian philosophy, guide for competitive examinations
Mail: [email protected]
Twitter; @Baskaranitax
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